Skeptical Science New Research Highlights: Week #6 2025

Climate Modeling and Policy: A Call for Pragmatism

A recent study in PLOS Climate emphasizes the urgent need for readily available data to understand local and regional climate change impacts. The authors advocate for a more pragmatic approach, focusing on leveraging existing knowledge and readily available statistical methods. They suggest incorporating diverse evidence, including model diversity, storylines, and advanced statistical techniques, to deliver more reliable climate information.

The paper argues that setting unrealistic ambitions, while well-intentioned, may hinder progress. It echoes the Paris Agreement's focus on achievable global warming targets, emphasizing the importance of delivering usable knowledge quickly in the face of the climate emergency.

"Doing better rather than promising more: A basic principle applicable to both climate modelling and climate policies," - Douville, PLOS Climate.

The Deadly Potential of Extreme Heat

A review in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment examines the chilling intersection of climate science and heat mortality. The study explores "uncompensable" and "unsurvivable" wet-bulb temperature thresholds, beyond which human body temperature rises uncontrollably. Findings reveal that these thresholds are already being breached, particularly for older adults, and the situation is projected to worsen with continued warming.

If warming reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels, the land area experiencing uncompensable wet-bulb temperatures for young adults could triple. The review underscores the urgent need for interdisciplinary research to understand and mitigate these deadly heat risks and emphasizes the crucial role of ensuring access to cool refugia.

Global Water Gaps: A Growing Concern

A Nature Communications study paints a stark picture of future water scarcity. Quantifying "water gaps" where demand exceeds supply, the research projects increased shortfalls under both 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios. A baseline global water gap of 457.9 km³/yr is predicted to rise by 5.8% and 14.7% respectively under these scenarios.

These projections highlight the uneven impact of warming on water resources, underscoring the need for both continued mitigation and targeted adaptation strategies. The study also acknowledges significant regional differences and model variability, emphasizing the complexity of future water resource management.

Reaching Policymakers: A Challenging Landscape

Communicating climate science effectively to policymakers is crucial. A Communications Earth & Environment article details a series of email trials testing different advocacy tactics to engage US policymakers with climate change information. Surprisingly, simple control messages outperformed messages using common advocacy techniques like norms manipulation, numerical emphasis, and emotional language.

This study highlights the importance of tailoring communication strategies to specific audiences, particularly those with significant influence over climate policy.

Public Opinion on Climate Action

Data for Progress surveyed US voters on their opinions regarding climate policy. A strong majority (70%) support climate action, spanning both Republican (54%) and Independent (74%) voters, indicating a broadly held concern.

The Arctic: A Geopolitical Hotspot

The Center for European Policy Analysis highlights the growing geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, exacerbated by climate change. Russia's increasing military activities in the region pose a threat to NATO and regional stability, raising concerns about potential escalation.

Further Research Highlights

Numerous other studies covered in Week #6 address topics ranging from the impacts of climate change on sea-level rise and ice sheet dynamics to the role of crevassing in Greenland's ice sheet. Additional research explores climate's effects on biodiversity, ocean hypoxia, and the increasing vulnerability of coastal marshes. Several publications also focus on solutions like decarbonization strategies, carbon capture, and green finance, highlighting the ongoing efforts to mitigate and adapt to a changing climate.