Skeptical Science New Research: Week #7 2025 - A Climate Check-In

Teetering on the Edge: The 1.5°C Threshold

2024 marked a sobering milestone, exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Two new studies in Nature Climate Change (Bevacqua et al. and Cannon) dissect this concerning development, exploring its implications for the Paris Agreement. Bevacqua et al.'s research suggests we're likely within the 20-year period that will definitively breach the Paris Agreement limit, while Cannon points out that this string of warm temperatures signals an earlier-than-predicted crossing of the long-term warming threshold.

Permafrost's Persistent Problem

Even under net-zero and negative emissions scenarios, permafrost continues to lose carbon, according to research in Science Advances (Park et al.). This persistent loss, releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere, could significantly hinder mitigation efforts. Increased methane emissions from thawing permafrost further complicate the picture.

Unintended Consequences: Conflict's Impact on Aviation Emissions

Airspace restrictions stemming from conflicts, notably the war in Ukraine, unexpectedly increased global aviation's CO2 emissions by 1% in 2023, as reported in Communications Earth & Environment (Dannet et al.). Flight detours around restricted airspace consumed significantly more fuel, offsetting a portion of the efficiency gains expected from improved air traffic management.

Vulnerable Agroecosystems: A Complex Interaction

Sinha et al.'s research in Global Change Biology demonstrates the complex interplay between changing climate means and variability in impacting US Midwest agroecosystems. Shifting temperature and precipitation patterns have nonlinear effects on carbon storage, plant productivity, and crop yields, painting a concerning picture for future food security.

Open Science: A Legacy for Future Generations

Looking beyond 2100, Gomes (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences) emphasizes the crucial role of open data and code in equipping future generations to tackle climate change. Ensuring data is findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) offers invaluable resources for future research and informed decision-making.

"Storing data and code in long-term repositories offers insurance against our uncertain future." - Gomes

Government and NGO Focus: Climate Action on Multiple Fronts

Reports this week highlight the multifaceted efforts to address climate change. The UK House of Commons scrutinized the progress and value of carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS) programs. Meanwhile, Canadian researchers dissected the spread of climate disinformation, highlighting the evolving tactics of climate delayism.

Exploring the Climate Landscape: A Wealth of Research

This week's research spans a vast spectrum, from the nuances of Arctic Ocean freshwater content to the impact of climate change on human health. New advancements in climate modeling, studies on the cryosphere, and research on greenhouse gas sources and sinks provide critical insights into the evolving climate system. Access to a large portion of these papers is available via open access.

Accessing Research: Overcoming Paywalls

Recognizing the financial barriers to accessing crucial research, Skeptical Science flags open access articles and recommends the "Unpaywall" browser extension to facilitate easier access to free content.

Behind the Scenes: Curating the Research

Skeptical Science's New Research section prioritizes peer-reviewed research relevant to anthropogenic climate change, aiming to provide readers with a clear and comprehensive view of the latest scientific developments.